Roadmap Modelling Scenarios

For background, refer to info from EGSC & ZEB reports

East Gippsland Report - Chapter 6

Byron Report - Chapter 2, section 2.2

ZONE SUBSTATIONS

Before modelling is started, we need to define the contribution to electricity consumption from each zone substation(ZS).  The following lists:

  • the Energex Zone Substations that feed the Noosa Local Government Area
  • an approximation of how much is consumed in Noosa
  • the locations served by the ZS, extracted from the latest Energex Distribution Annual Planning Report
     
  • Black Mountain - BMT - 90%
    • Supplies Belli Park, Black Mountain, Bollier, Boreen Point, Carters Ridge, Como, Cooran, Cooroy, Cootharaba, Federal, Kin Kin, Lake Macdonald, Pinbarren, Pomona, Ridgewood, Ringtail Creek, Toolara Forest, Tuchekoi
    • low population outside Noosa LGA
  • Cooran - COR - 90%
    • Supplies Cooran, Cootharaba, Kin Kin, Pinbarren, Pomona, Traveston
    • low population outside Noosa LGA
  • Cooroy - CRY - 90%
    • Supplies Belli Park, Cooloolabin, Cooroy, Cooroy Mountain, Doonan, Eerwah Vale, Eumundi, Lake Macdonald,Pomona, Ringtail Creek, Tinbeerwah
    • low population outside Noosa LGA
  • Noosaville - NVL - 100%
    • Supplies Castaways Beach, Marcus Beach, Noosa Heads, Noosaville, North Shore, Peregian Beach, Sunrise Beach, Sunshine Beach, Tewantin
    • all in Noosa LGA
  • Peregian - PGN - 25%
    • Supplies Doonan, Marcus Beach, Peregian Beach, Verrierdale
    • Energex DAPR does not explicitly mention Peregian Springs for any Zone Substation, so assume Peregian Beach includes Peregian Springs, Peregian Breeze
  • Tewantin - TWT - 95%
    • Supplies Cooroibah, Doonan, Eumundi, Noosaville, North Shore, Peregian Beach, Ringtail Creek, Tewantin, Tinbeerwah, Verrierdale, Weyba Downs, Yandina Creek
    • Some areas outside Noosa LGA, but given population centres and Energex 11kV maps, expect majority is served within Noosa LGA

Refer to Noosa Zone Substation Apportioning.
Note that apportioning does not exactly align with Energex reported total consumption for Noosa. 

This apportioning will be sufficiently accurate for the first round of modelling.

Followup with Energex Customer Analytics will be made.

 Noosa LGA Energex Zone Substations are at Cooran(COR), Cooroy(CRY), Black Mountain(BMT), Tewantin(TWT), Noosaville(NVL) and Peregian(PGN)

Noosa LGA Energex Zone Substations are at Cooran(COR), Cooroy(CRY), Black Mountain(BMT), Tewantin(TWT), Noosaville(NVL) and Peregian(PGN)

Scenarios

1. Population Growth

What will the population growth be in the Noosa Shire by 2026?

This is effective population growth so includes both an increase in permanent residents and increased tourist night.

Please note that this section requires significant review, as the assumptions relating to Tourism numbers are thought to be incorrect.

The Queensland Government Statistician's Office provides projected population by local government areas.  The latest projections are for 2011 to 2036.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016 Census measures the population in the Noosa Local Government Area at 52,149.

Combining the census figure with the low and medium Statistician's projections give a 2026 population of between 55,563 and 56,548 representing an increase of between 6.5% to 8.4%.

An average of 13,425 overnight visitors stay in Noosa as at June 2017.  Tourism Noosa estimate an extra 1,600 visitors per day are estimated to visit in 2022 (on average), which extrapolates to 2,667 extra by 2026.

Adding projected population and extrapolated visitor stays gives a combined population in 2026 of between 71,654(9.3%) and 72,639(10.8%), up from 65,574 in 2016.

Need to check with juanita@tourismnoosa.com.au if 1,600 is overnighters, and if they have projections for 2026.

Preliminary check with Juanita, staying visitors to Noosa on average add 5.6% to the total population.  The growth in staying visitors is likely to come from private accomodation via Airbnb, Stayz, etc.

 Need to check above calcs against 5.6% tourist figure......

Noosa Council will check these assumptions - via Annie Nolan / Kim Rawlings

Base case = 12%     Stretch = 9%

 http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA35740?opendocument

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA35740?opendocument

 Projected population, by local government area, Queensland, 2011 to 2036  http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/subjects/demography/population-projections/tables/proj-pop-lga-qld/index.php

Projected population, by local government area, Queensland, 2011 to 2036

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/subjects/demography/population-projections/tables/proj-pop-lga-qld/index.php

 4.9m visitor nights.  Divide by 365 to get average number of visitors in accomodation = 13,425  http://www.visitnoosa.com.au/image/industry/visitor-stats/Tourism%20Noosa%20research%20highlights%20-%20year%20ending%20June%202017-final.pdf

4.9m visitor nights.  Divide by 365 to get average number of visitors in accomodation = 13,425

http://www.visitnoosa.com.au/image/industry/visitor-stats/Tourism%20Noosa%20research%20highlights%20-%20year%20ending%20June%202017-final.pdf

2. Solar Hot Water and Heat Pump Hot water

What percentage of buildings (residential and commercial) will have SHW or Heat pump hot water systems?

(There was some discussion as to whether the move to more efficient heating means should be encouraged or whether a better alternative was for the premise to add some extra PV panels to cover the HW resistive heating requirements – to be discussed further.)

The Clean Energy Regulator publishes monthly data for small scale installations of solar water heaters and air source heat pump water heaters, by postcode.

As at the end of 2017, for the Noosa Local Government Area:

  • Solar Water Heaters = 3,074 (11.7% of households), increasing by 4.3% annually over the last 2 years.
  • Air source Heat Pump Water Heaters = 930(3.5% of households), increasing by 6.8% annually over last 2 years
  • Combined, 15.2% of households have some type of solar hot water system.

Projecting to 2026:

  • Assuming the same rates of growth, Solar Water Heaters = 16.0% and Heat Pump Water Heaters = 6.0% for a combined total of 22.0% of households
  • If we assume 10% annual growth for Solar Water Heaters = 25.9% and 25% annual growth for Heat Pump Water Heaters = 24.8%, for combined total of 50.7% of households

Base case = 22%     Stretch = 50%

 

3. Change in Electricity Use Per capita

What will the increase/decrease in per capita annual electricity consumption be?

(Looking here at efficiency programs, better design etc. Some concern that larger PV installations on houses may encourage greater personal consumption. There is also the trend to more A/C in homes and schools
We have proposed a base case of 0% with a 15% reduction as a stretch case.)

The Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council published a summary report in May 2016 which includes projections for built environment energy efficiency.

With no further action, a reduction of 7% is projected by 2030, extrapolated to 5% by 2026.

With all energy efficiency actions taken, a reduction of 23% is projected by 2030, extrapolated to 17% by 2026.

Built-environment-energy-efficiency

Base case = 5% reduction    Stretch = 17% reduction

 

4. Electric Vehicle Uptake

What percentage of the vehicle fleet will be the electric? Includes both personal and commercial.

Climate Works Australia and the Electric Vehicle Council have published The State of Electric Vehicles in Australia report (June 2017)

 https://climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/state_of_evs_final.pdf - page 7

https://climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/state_of_evs_final.pdf - page 7

The projected numbers vary in the extreme.

Base case = 10%     Stretch = 20%

 

5. Residential Solar PV

What percentage of households will install solar PV (aiming at a 5kW average installation size by 2026).

The Australian PhotoVoltaic Institute(APVI) publishes summary data from the Clean Energy Regulator of installed Solar PV, including by Local Government Area.  For Noosa, as at the end of 2017, there were

  • 8,217 solar installations - approx 36% of dwellings
  • Installed capacity = 27.1 MW
  • Residential = 24.8 MW and Business(over 10kW) = 2.5 MW
 http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/historical#11/-26.3377/152.8310

http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/historical#11/-26.3377/152.8310

The APVI also provide time series data by postcode, as in the image below.  Analysis of this data shows installations grew by 11% in 2017.

Assuming a growth rate of 10% per annum until 2026, with each installation being 5kW, would result in a total installed capacity of 81MW or 75% of dwellings.

Assuming a more modest 5% per annum would result in total installed capacity of 49MW or 50% of dwellings.

APVI-Time-Series-data-by-postcode

Base case = 50%     Stretch = 75%

 

6. Business Solar PV

What percentage of businesses will install solar PV (average size 20kW).

For the purposes of this analysis, we assume that any solar PV installation over 10kW is an installation for a business.

The APVI also provide time series data by postcode, as in the image below.  Analysis of this data shows that installed business solar PV capacity increased by 51% in 2017, with a total of 144 businesses having solar, or 4.7% which is significantly less than for residential.

Assuming a growth rate of 35% per annum until 2026, would result in a total installed capacity of 42 MW or 70% of businesses.

Assuming a more modest 30% per annum would result in total installed capacity of 30 MW or 50% of businesses.

APVI-Timeseries-data-by-installation-size

Base case = 50%     Stretch = 70%

 

7. Battery Storage

What percentage of households and business, that will have solar PV, will install sufficient battery capacity to cover one night's consumption.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) commissioned a report Projections of Uptake of Small-Scale Systems, including solar PV and batteries.

From Figure 18 below, it can be inferred that 12.5% of residential with solar PV would also have a battery.

We see that as a very conservative estimate.

If we assume double the AEMO rate, ie 25% of residential with solar PV also have batteries

  • if solar PV installations grow at 5%, 12% of Noosa residential will have a battery
  • at 10% growth, 19% of Noosa residential will have a battery.

If we assume triple the AEMO rate, ie 40% of residential with solar PV also have batteries

  • if solar PV installations grow at 5%, 20% of Noosa residential will have a battery
  • at 10% growth, 30% of Noosa residential will have a battery.

Base case = 25%     Stretch = 40%

 

8. Bioenergy

How much generation capacity will there be from Bioenergy, wind or run of river hydro?

We believe very little but have included some in case methane capture at the tip is done.

Base case = 0 MW     Stretch = 0.1 MW

 

9. Green Power

What percentage of consumers will purchase Green Power?

As prices for PV installations continue to drop we believe there is little economic incentive for people to choose Green Power over their own installation. There is likely to remain a low level of participation for those who cannot install PV on their building.

Green Power is a very small proportion of electricity consumption in Queensland.

Base case = 0.5%     Stretch = 1%


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